Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

249.96 – 50.59

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

201 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.6 ±9.8

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 151.18Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 44.46Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 54.32Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.4 ±12.8

9203Quake

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -12.31Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9703Q_Bots

Season APEX 56Event APEX 5.19Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 57.71Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8608, 9215, 1188

/ 100 compat

Projected

250 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8608, 9215, 1188

Auto

44.7 18%

Teleop

155.7 62%

Endgame

49.8 20%

Strengths

· 8608 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9203, 9703, 5676

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.6 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9203, 9703, 5676

Auto

12.8 26%

Teleop

19.9 40%

Endgame

17.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score250pts

Blue projected score50.6pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 199.4
Score range: 31–270
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 261 vs event baseline 108.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.6Season APEX210.4

44.7Auto12.8

155.7Teleop19.9

49.8Endgame17.2

45Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	13
teleop	137	23
endgame	32	24
foul	0	0
total	201	60

Result

Final score

201 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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