Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

62.79 – 55.87

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

79 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.3 ±11.1

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 60.72Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3658Robo - Beavers

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 6.71Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5980East Grand Rapids Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX -4.64Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.7 ±12.2

8397Astrobots

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 16.74Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2959Robotarians

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 22.59Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11407Sturgis Trojans

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 16.54Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 245, 3658, 5980

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 245, 3658, 5980

Auto

23.4 38%

Teleop

23.8 39%

Endgame

14.3 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8397, 2959, 11407

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8397, 2959, 11407

Auto

10.6 19%

Teleop

35.0 63%

Endgame

10.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.8pts

Blue projected score55.9pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.9
Score range: 37–82
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 105.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.3Season APEX261.7

23.4Auto10.6

23.8Teleop35

14.3Endgame10

74Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	18
teleop	31	31
endgame	35	6
foul	0	0
total	79	55

Result

Final score

79 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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