Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

88.45 – 74.46

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

121 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 305.1 ±11.7

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 40.08Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 53.99Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7658MagiTech

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX -5.62Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.8 ±11.7

9203Quake

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -14.94Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 34.19Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

858Demons Robotics

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 55.21Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9215, 5676, 7658

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9215, 5676, 7658

Auto

12.3 14%

Teleop

42.5 50%

Endgame

30.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9203, 11386, 858

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9203, 11386, 858

Auto

26.1 36%

Teleop

27.9 38%

Endgame

19.2 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.4pts

Blue projected score74.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14
Score range: 55–107
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 105.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

305.1Season APEX226.8

12.3Auto26.1

42.5Teleop27.9

30.9Endgame19.2

85Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	18
teleop	76	36
endgame	25	29
foul	0	0
total	121	83

Result

Final score

121 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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