Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

92.22 – 64.56

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 56.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 250.9 ±12.2

10473Team Lance-B-Bot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 15.33Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3875Red Storm Robotics

Season APEX 155.8Event APEX 51.6Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5610Turbulence

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 25.29Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248.9 ±12.2

5559Gear Grinders

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 46.94Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8041Lake City Ultrabots

Season APEX 45.2Event APEX -13.22Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 30.84Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10473, 3875, 5610

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10473, 3875, 5610

Auto

16.3 18%

Teleop

48.1 53%

Endgame

26.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5559, 8041, 5152

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5559, 8041, 5152

Auto

24.8 37%

Teleop

18.9 28%

Endgame

22.9 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.2pts

Blue projected score64.6pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.7
Score range: 46–111
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 105.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

250.9Season APEX248.9

16.3Auto24.8

48.1Teleop18.9

26.6Endgame22.9

7Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	19
teleop	26	71
endgame	13	41
foul	0	0
total	45	131

Result

Final score

45 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 56.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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