Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.87 – 30.65

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

102 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 3.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225 ±12.2

5248Robo-Saxons

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 33.19Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 58.64Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7911Scrap Cat Robotics Team Puma

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 11.04Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.3 ±13.9

7226Error 404

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 11.95Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9638Tigers, Bro!

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 0.06Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9672Colon Magi Robotics

Season APEX 28Event APEX 18.64Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5248, 1188, 7911

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5248, 1188, 7911

Auto

15.1 14%

Teleop

57.3 54%

Endgame

33.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7226, 9638, 9672

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7226, 9638, 9672

Auto

12.2 43%

Teleop

11.9 42%

Endgame

4.1 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.9pts

Blue projected score30.7pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.2
Score range: 12–122
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 106.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225Season APEX174.3

15.1Auto12.2

57.3Teleop11.9

33.3Endgame4.1

40Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	14
teleop	78	16
endgame	13	6
foul	0	0
total	102	36

Result

Final score

102 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 3.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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