Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

124.57 – 106.91

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

97 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 41.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.6 ±11

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 48.56Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 66.34Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5248Robo-Saxons

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 9.67Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.8 ±11.2

8041Lake City Ultrabots

Season APEX 45.2Event APEX 8.17Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 62.26Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 36.48Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5152, 5676, 5248

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5152, 5676, 5248

Auto

27.5 22%

Teleop

59.5 48%

Endgame

37.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8041, 245, 11386

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8041, 245, 11386

Auto

28.4 27%

Teleop

46.2 44%

Endgame

30.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score124.6pts

Blue projected score106.9pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.7
Score range: 85–147
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 124.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.6Season APEX318.8

27.5Auto28.4

59.5Teleop46.2

37.4Endgame30.2

32Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	31
teleop	47	19
endgame	37	2
foul	0	0
total	97	52

Result

Final score

97 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 41.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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