Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

211.6 – 175.94

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

96 – 202

Prediction missed · off by 70.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.3 ±11.4

6002ZooBOTix

Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 147.6Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5623Robotic Rams

Season APEX 80Event APEX 38.71Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9703Q_Bots

Season APEX 56Event APEX 25.29Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.2 ±11.1

9566Red Storm Rookies

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 12.58Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 148Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10651Gear Cats

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 15.36Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6002, 5623, 9703

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6002, 5623, 9703

Auto

22.3 11%

Teleop

120.2 58%

Endgame

66.1 32%

Strengths

· 6002 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9566, 8608, 10651

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9566, 8608, 10651

Auto

25.7 15%

Teleop

119.4 68%

Endgame

31.0 18%

Strengths

· 8608 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score211.6pts

Blue projected score175.9pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.7
Score range: 157–231
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 298 vs event baseline 105.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

403.3Season APEX409.2

22.3Auto25.7

120.2Teleop119.4

66.1Endgame31

0Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	8
teleop	49	130
endgame	10	64
foul	0	0
total	96	202

Result

Final score

96 – 202

Prediction missed · off by 70.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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