Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.53 – 98.18

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 40.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.4 ±10.4

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 24.27Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 32.46Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 25.8Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.7 ±12.8

5610Turbulence

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 22.97Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 60.81Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9672Colon Magi Robotics

Season APEX 28Event APEX 14.4Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5152, 8126, 11386

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5152, 8126, 11386

Auto

40.6 49%

Teleop

28.2 34%

Endgame

14.0 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5610, 1188, 9672

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5610, 1188, 9672

Auto

28.9 30%

Teleop

48.3 50%

Endgame

19.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.5pts

Blue projected score98.2pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.7
Score range: 64–117
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 262 vs event baseline 105.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303.4Season APEX189.7

40.6Auto28.9

28.2Teleop48.3

14Endgame19.8

0Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	37
teleop	69	50
endgame	46	15
foul	0	0
total	160	102

Result

Final score

160 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 40.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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