Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.58 – 96.25

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 59.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366.9 ±11.2

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 51.09Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9703Q_Bots

Season APEX 56Event APEX 24.66Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 26.83Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.3 ±12.7

5623Robotic Rams

Season APEX 80Event APEX 47.69Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7911Scrap Cat Robotics Team Puma

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 20.52Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10473Team Lance-B-Bot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 28.04Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 245, 9703, 9215

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 245, 9703, 9215

Auto

13.1 13%

Teleop

56.7 57%

Endgame

30.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5623, 7911, 10473

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5623, 7911, 10473

Auto

13.6 14%

Teleop

42.9 44%

Endgame

40.1 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.6pts

Blue projected score96.3pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.3
Score range: 77–122
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 105.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366.9Season APEX178.3

13.1Auto13.6

56.7Teleop42.9

30.3Endgame40.1

57Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	2
teleop	83	4
endgame	47	17
foul	0	0
total	148	23

Result

Final score

148 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 59.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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