Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.16 – 62.25

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

283 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 599.8 ±10.7

9638Tigers, Bro!

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX -17.65Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 86.77Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 140.04Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.6 ±12.7

5559Gear Grinders

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 40.4Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10651Gear Cats

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 15.61Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7256Irish Robotics

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 6.24Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9638, 4237, 8608

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9638, 4237, 8608

Auto

47.1 23%

Teleop

144.9 70%

Endgame

15.8 8%

Strengths

· 8608 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5559, 10651, 7256

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5559, 10651, 7256

Auto

14.4 23%

Teleop

31.0 49%

Endgame

17.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score209.2pts

Blue projected score62.3pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 146.9
Score range: 43–228
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 103.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

599.8Season APEX188.6

47.1Auto14.4

144.9Teleop31

15.8Endgame17.5

81Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	11
teleop	160	42
endgame	59	26
foul	0	0
total	283	79

Result

Final score

283 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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