Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

6.37 – 192.44

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 145.5 ±13.9

11407Sturgis Trojans

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 21.69Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9203Quake

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -13.07Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7658MagiTech

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX -2.25Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 399.2 ±11.4

7226Error 404

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 14.41Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6002ZooBOTix

Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 145.37Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5248Robo-Saxons

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 32.66Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11407, 9203, 7658

/ 100 compat

Projected

6.4 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11407, 9203, 7658

Auto

11.0 100%

Teleop

-2.5 0%

Endgame

-6.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7226, 6002, 5248

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7226, 6002, 5248

Auto

18.5 10%

Teleop

119.2 62%

Endgame

54.8 28%

Strengths

· 6002 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.5 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score6.4pts

Blue projected score192.4pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -186.1
Score range: -13–211
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 223 vs event baseline 103.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

145.5Season APEX399.2

11Auto18.5

-2.5Teleop119.2

-6Endgame54.8

72Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	27
teleop	8	126
endgame	0	49
foul	0	0
total	21	202

Result

Final score

21 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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