Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

135.26 – 189.96

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 33.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.1 ±11

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 46.07Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10651Gear Cats

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 20.41Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5675WiredCats

Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 68.78Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.6 ±11.7

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 159.45Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5610Turbulence

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 13.16Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9566Red Storm Rookies

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 17.35Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1188, 10651, 5675

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1188, 10651, 5675

Auto

33.7 25%

Teleop

74.3 54%

Endgame

28.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2767, 5610, 9566

/ 100 compat

Projected

190 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2767, 5610, 9566

Auto

50.6 27%

Teleop

91.7 49%

Endgame

43.3 23%

Strengths

· 2767 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score135.3pts

Blue projected score190pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.7
Score range: 113–212
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 261 vs event baseline 124.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330.1Season APEX370.6

33.7Auto50.6

74.3Teleop91.7

28.7Endgame43.3

20Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	48
teleop	29	117
endgame	14	21
foul	0	5
total	70	191

Result

Final score

70 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 33.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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