Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.38 – 19

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.2 ±11.7

9703Q_Bots

Season APEX 56Event APEX 27.46Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 88.95Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5559Gear Grinders

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 37.97Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.7 ±13.3

8041Lake City Ultrabots

Season APEX 45.2Event APEX -13.06Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11407Sturgis Trojans

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 16.3Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9566Red Storm Rookies

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 15.76Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9703, 4237, 5559

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9703, 4237, 5559

Auto

33.4 22%

Teleop

90.5 59%

Endgame

29.1 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8041, 11407, 9566

/ 100 compat

Projected

19 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8041, 11407, 9566

Auto

5.4 31%

Teleop

12.4 70%

Endgame

-0.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score154.4pts

Blue projected score19pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 135.4
Score range: 1–172
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 102.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.2Season APEX148.7

33.4Auto5.4

90.5Teleop12.4

29.1Endgame-0.2

57Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	15
teleop	93	11
endgame	27	10
foul	0	0
total	159	36

Result

Final score

159 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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