Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.42 – 88.74

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

68 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 33.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 196 ±12.2

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 5.77Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7256Irish Robotics

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 5.99Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5248Robo-Saxons

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 35.66Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.9 ±12.2

10473Team Lance-B-Bot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 45.81Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 24.86Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9239Panthers robotics

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 18.07Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8126, 7256, 5248

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8126, 7256, 5248

Auto

7.1 14%

Teleop

40.1 82%

Endgame

1.8 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10473, 9215, 9239

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10473, 9215, 9239

Auto

10.4 12%

Teleop

64.2 75%

Endgame

11.0 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score47.4pts

Blue projected score88.7pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.3
Score range: 28–108
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 111 vs event baseline 103.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

196Season APEX252.9

7.1Auto10.4

40.1Teleop64.2

1.8Endgame11

40Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	10
teleop	43	19
endgame	14	14
foul	0	0
total	68	43

Result

Final score

68 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 33.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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