Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.26 – 129.32

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

87 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.2 ±12.2

8041Lake City Ultrabots

Season APEX 45.2Event APEX 9.02Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 25.26Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10473Team Lance-B-Bot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 43.98Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.6 ±11.2

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 77.28Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5675WiredCats

Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 44.33Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9239Panthers robotics

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 7.71Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8041, 1188, 10473

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8041, 1188, 10473

Auto

32.4 41%

Teleop

43.1 54%

Endgame

4.0 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4237, 5675, 9239

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4237, 5675, 9239

Auto

32.2 25%

Teleop

71.1 55%

Endgame

26.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.3pts

Blue projected score129.3pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.1
Score range: 61–146
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 96.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.2Season APEX454.6

32.4Auto32.2

43.1Teleop71.1

4Endgame26.6

91Consistency170

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	51
teleop	37	143
endgame	33	6
foul	0	0
total	87	200

Result

Final score

87 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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