Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

68.55 – 18.3

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

80 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 20.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.1 ±11.1

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 11.29Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9566Red Storm Rookies

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 23.56Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5559Gear Grinders

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 33.7Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.1 ±12.7

5248Robo-Saxons

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 17.9Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5980East Grand Rapids Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 6.22Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9203Quake

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -5.82Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4327, 9566, 5559

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4327, 9566, 5559

Auto

15.2 23%

Teleop

35.4 55%

Endgame

14.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5248, 5980, 9203

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5248, 5980, 9203

Auto

4.0 19%

Teleop

11.3 54%

Endgame

5.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.6pts

Blue projected score18.3pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.3
Score range: 0–87
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 127 vs event baseline 98.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.1Season APEX174.1

15.2Auto4

35.4Teleop11.3

14.3Endgame5.5

36Consistency181

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	12
teleop	46	32
endgame	27	3
foul	0	0
total	80	47

Result

Final score

80 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 20.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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