Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

106.54 – 36.83

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

104 – 6

Prediction correct · off by 16.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.8 ±12.4

7226Error 404

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 44.26Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 36.18Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5610Turbulence

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 26.1Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170.8 ±13.9

7256Irish Robotics

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 20.95Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4453The Red Hot Chili Bots

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 10.99Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9703Q_Bots

Season APEX 56Event APEX 4.89Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7226, 245, 5610

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7226, 245, 5610

Auto

28.3 27%

Teleop

62.4 59%

Endgame

14.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7256, 4453, 9703

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7256, 4453, 9703

Auto

-1.0 0%

Teleop

28.4 85%

Endgame

5.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.5pts

Blue projected score36.8pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.7
Score range: 20–124
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 110 vs event baseline 95.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.8Season APEX170.8

28.3Auto-1

62.4Teleop28.4

14.6Endgame5.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	5
teleop	54	1
endgame	25	0
foul	0	0
total	104	6

Result

Final score

104 – 6

Prediction correct · off by 16.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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