Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

54.54 – 51.82

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

118 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.8 ±11

5248Robo-Saxons

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 8.26Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5675WiredCats

Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 23.34Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 22.94Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.1 ±12.2

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 48.37Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9638Tigers, Bro!

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 6.81Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5980East Grand Rapids Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX -3.36Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5248, 5675, 9215

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5248, 5675, 9215

Auto

-3.8 0%

Teleop

44.6 87%

Endgame

10.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1188, 9638, 5980

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1188, 9638, 5980

Auto

20.7 45%

Teleop

11.4 25%

Endgame

14.4 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.5pts

Blue projected score51.8pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.7
Score range: 34–73
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 100.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.8Season APEX269.1

-3.8Auto20.7

44.6Teleop11.4

10.7Endgame14.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	35
teleop	74	16
endgame	34	0
foul	0	0
total	118	51

Result

Final score

118 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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