Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.26 – 147.85

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

244 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 77.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 495.3 ±9.8

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 21.71Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

858Demons Robotics

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 56.35Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 93.2Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207 ±12.1

10473Team Lance-B-Bot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 87.28Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3658Robo - Beavers

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 17.83Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5559Gear Grinders

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 42.74Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5152, 858, 2767

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5152, 858, 2767

Auto

40.4 23%

Teleop

93.1 54%

Endgame

38.7 22%

Strengths

· 2767 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10473, 3658, 5559

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10473, 3658, 5559

Auto

31.5 22%

Teleop

84.2 58%

Endgame

30.2 21%

Strengths

· 10473 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score171.3pts

Blue projected score147.9pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.4
Score range: 131–188
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 96.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

495.3Season APEX207

40.4Auto31.5

93.1Teleop84.2

38.7Endgame30.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	13
teleop	93	34
endgame	83	18
foul	0	0
total	244	65

Result

Final score

244 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 77.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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