Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.94 – 92.59

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

54 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.1 ±12.7

2959Robotarians

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 26.09Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7226Error 404

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 39.2Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10651Gear Cats

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 7.65Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.4 ±11.7

7256Irish Robotics

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 45.58Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 15.29Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8397Astrobots

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 31.72Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2959, 7226, 10651

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2959, 7226, 10651

Auto

11.4 16%

Teleop

47.9 66%

Endgame

13.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7256, 11386, 8397

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7256, 11386, 8397

Auto

22.6 25%

Teleop

47.9 52%

Endgame

21.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.9pts

Blue projected score92.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.7
Score range: 55–111
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 95 vs event baseline 101.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.1Season APEX256.4

11.4Auto22.6

47.9Teleop47.9

13.3Endgame21.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	18
teleop	36	23
endgame	13	0
foul	0	0
total	54	41

Result

Final score

54 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 35.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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