Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
62.7 – 104.26
37%63%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
15 – 202
Prediction correct · off by 72.7 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 129.3 ±13.9
Season APEX 56.1Event APEX -1.56Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 28Event APEX 53.65Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 45.2Event APEX 10.61Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 446.2 ±10.8
Season APEX 129.3Event APEX -2.37Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 53.65Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 52.98Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7658, 9672, 8041
50
/ 100 compatProjected
62.7 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 7658, 9672, 8041
Auto
14.2 24%
Teleop
22.1 37%
Endgame
23.6 39%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9215, 6002, 7911
67
/ 100 compatProjected
104.3 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 9215, 6002, 7911
Auto
16.8 16%
Teleop
45.9 45%
Endgame
39.2 38%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.72
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score62.7pts
Blue projected score104.3pts
Red win probability37%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 32%, blue 42%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -41.6
- Score range
- 45–122
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
129.3Season APEX446.2
14.2Auto16.8
22.1Teleop45.9
23.6Endgame39.2
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 10 | 24 |
| teleop | 5 | 115 |
| endgame | 0 | 63 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 15 | 202 |
Result
Final score
15 – 202
Prediction correct · off by 72.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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