Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.51 – 101.08

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.7 ±13.3

9703Q_Bots

Season APEX 56Event APEX 4.49Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5610Turbulence

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 35.38Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5980East Grand Rapids Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX -3.36Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316 ±11

3875Red Storm Robotics

Season APEX 155.8Event APEX 31.37Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

858Demons Robotics

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 48.42Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5248Robo-Saxons

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 21.29Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9703, 5610, 5980

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9703, 5610, 5980

Auto

8.0 27%

Teleop

22.9 78%

Endgame

-1.6 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3875, 858, 5248

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3875, 858, 5248

Auto

13.1 13%

Teleop

60.4 60%

Endgame

26.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score36.5pts

Blue projected score101.1pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.6
Score range: 18–120
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 103.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.7Season APEX316

8Auto13.1

22.9Teleop60.4

-1.6Endgame26.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	1
teleop	8	86
endgame	2	40
foul	0	0
total	21	127

Result

Final score

21 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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