Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.44 – 107.29

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 62.6 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 441.6 ±10.7

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 52.29Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 14.86Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9203Quake

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX 1.29Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 440.3 ±10.5

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 37.29Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 6.57Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10473Team Lance-B-Bot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 63.43Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4237, 245, 9203

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4237, 245, 9203

Auto

21.3 31%

Teleop

39.1 57%

Endgame

8.0 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8608, 8126, 10473

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8608, 8126, 10473

Auto

13.4 13%

Teleop

71.0 67%

Endgame

21.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.4pts

Blue projected score107.3pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.9
Score range: 50–125
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 97.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

441.6Season APEX440.3

21.3Auto13.4

39.1Teleop71

8Endgame21.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	40
teleop	50	150
endgame	15	8
foul	0	0
total	103	198

Result

Final score

103 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 62.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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