Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.43 – 101.78

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.5 ±13.3

5559Gear Grinders

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 52.22Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9203Quake

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -0.43Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9239Panthers robotics

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 10.64Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.9 ±11

8397Astrobots

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 17.51Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3875Red Storm Robotics

Season APEX 155.8Event APEX 61.05Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5623Robotic Rams

Season APEX 80Event APEX 23.22Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5559, 9203, 9239

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5559, 9203, 9239

Auto

11.4 18%

Teleop

37.0 59%

Endgame

14.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8397, 3875, 5623

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8397, 3875, 5623

Auto

15.6 16%

Teleop

51.1 51%

Endgame

32.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.4pts

Blue projected score101.8pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.3
Score range: 40–124
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 124.1.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.5Season APEX355.9

11.4Auto15.6

37Teleop51.1

14Endgame32.8

44Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	9
teleop	25	52
endgame	7	42
foul	0	0
total	42	103

Result

Final score

42 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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