FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.2 – 59.83

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462 ±9.9

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 54.17Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 24.77Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 56.26Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.6 ±12.1

4776S.C.O.T.S. Bots

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 1.85Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7155The Robotic Rangers

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 17.66Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 40.32Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5534, 10421, 2586

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5534, 10421, 2586

Auto

24.1 18%

Teleop

70.6 53%

Endgame

37.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4776, 7155, 9541

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4776, 7155, 9541

Auto

18.0 31%

Teleop

24.5 42%

Endgame

15.8 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score135.2pts

Blue projected score59.8pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.4
Score range: 41–154
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 105.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462Season APEX137.6

24.1Auto18

70.6Teleop24.5

37.7Endgame15.8

3Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	28
teleop	67	39
endgame	11	18
foul	0	0
total	101	85

Result

Final score

101 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 pts

Match videos

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