FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

155.61 – 165.39

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

148 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 10 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.9 ±11.7

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 58.29Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

141WOBOT

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX 65.31Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5547The Talons

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 32.01Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.9 ±10.5

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 55.45Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4983IronBots

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 26.96Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 82.98Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1684, 141, 5547

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1684, 141, 5547

Auto

17.6 11%

Teleop

91.1 59%

Endgame

44.7 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3536, 4983, 226

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3536, 4983, 226

Auto

31.9 20%

Teleop

97.2 61%

Endgame

30.3 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.6pts

Blue projected score165.4pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.8
Score range: 137–184
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 105.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.9Season APEX425.9

17.6Auto31.9

91.1Teleop97.2

44.7Endgame30.3

10Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	51
teleop	89	68
endgame	45	34
foul	0	0
total	148	153

Result

Final score

148 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 10 pts

Match videos

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