FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.81 – 55.92

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 72

Prediction missed · off by 37.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.1 ±11.7

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 37.27Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11437The ARC - Addison Robotics Club

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 30.71Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7202Cyber Orioles

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 42.83Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.6 ±12.1

4776S.C.O.T.S. Bots

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 1Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7155The Robotic Rangers

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 15.91Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 39.01Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6121, 11437, 7202

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6121, 11437, 7202

Auto

24.1 22%

Teleop

68.4 61%

Endgame

18.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4776, 7155, 9541

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4776, 7155, 9541

Auto

15.9 29%

Teleop

21.1 39%

Endgame

17.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.8pts

Blue projected score55.9pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.9
Score range: 37–130
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 123 vs event baseline 105.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.1Season APEX137.6

24.1Auto15.9

68.4Teleop21.1

18.9Endgame17.2

32Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	31
teleop	14	33
endgame	13	8
foul	0	0
total	51	72

Result

Final score

51 – 72

Prediction missed · off by 37.9 pts

Match videos

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