FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

106.42 – 93.33

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 52 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.9 ±10.5

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 17.78Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 43.87Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6114Hamilton CyberHawks

Season APEX 112.8Event APEX 44.77Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.3 ±12.2

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 38.85Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8041Lake City Ultrabots

Season APEX 45.2Event APEX 27.57Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 26.91Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7768, 7250, 6114

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7768, 7250, 6114

Auto

28.0 27%

Teleop

50.8 49%

Endgame

25.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4956, 8041, 6963

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4956, 8041, 6963

Auto

23.9 26%

Teleop

49.1 54%

Endgame

18.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.4pts

Blue projected score93.3pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.1
Score range: 74–125
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 104.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.9Season APEX203.3

28Auto23.9

50.8Teleop49.1

25.4Endgame18.7

37Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	26
teleop	109	21
endgame	40	12
foul	0	0
total	176	59

Result

Final score

176 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 52 pts

Match videos

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