FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.31 – 60.9

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

209 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 425.9 ±10.5

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 51.29Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4983IronBots

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 22.87Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 79.15Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.6 ±12.1

4776S.C.O.T.S. Bots

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 2.71Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7155The Robotic Rangers

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 17.83Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 40.36Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3536, 4983, 226

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3536, 4983, 226

Auto

28.6 20%

Teleop

88.6 61%

Endgame

28.7 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4776, 7155, 9541

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4776, 7155, 9541

Auto

15.4 26%

Teleop

24.2 41%

Endgame

19.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.3pts

Blue projected score60.9pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.4
Score range: 42–172
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 104.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

425.9Season APEX137.6

28.6Auto15.4

88.6Teleop24.2

28.7Endgame19.5

21Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	20
teleop	127	13
endgame	35	9
foul	0	0
total	209	42

Result

Final score

209 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 pts

Match videos

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