FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.28 – 122.37

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

245 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 80 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.9 ±11.7

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 50.27Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

141WOBOT

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX 57.01Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5547The Talons

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 25Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394.1 ±11.7

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 41.43Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11437The ARC - Addison Robotics Club

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 34.94Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7202Cyber Orioles

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 46Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1684, 141, 5547

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1684, 141, 5547

Auto

11.9 9%

Teleop

74.4 57%

Endgame

43.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6121, 11437, 7202

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6121, 11437, 7202

Auto

24.4 20%

Teleop

77.4 62%

Endgame

22.7 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.3pts

Blue projected score122.4pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.9
Score range: 103–151
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 320 vs event baseline 103.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.9Season APEX394.1

11.9Auto24.4

74.4Teleop77.4

43.2Endgame22.7

45Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	26
teleop	154	40
endgame	49	4
foul	0	5
total	245	75

Result

Final score

245 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 80 pts

Match videos

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