FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.95 – 137.86

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

113 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 203.3 ±12.2

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 38.03Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8041Lake City Ultrabots

Season APEX 45.2Event APEX 26.68Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 26.24Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462 ±9.9

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 55.62Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 25.79Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 56.45Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4956, 8041, 6963

/ 100 compat

Projected

91 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4956, 8041, 6963

Auto

23.2 26%

Teleop

50.3 56%

Endgame

15.6 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5534, 10421, 2586

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5534, 10421, 2586

Auto

16.8 12%

Teleop

72.9 54%

Endgame

45.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91pts

Blue projected score137.9pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.9
Score range: 72–157
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 103.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

203.3Season APEX462

23.2Auto16.8

50.3Teleop72.9

15.6Endgame45.3

14Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	43
teleop	52	105
endgame	29	21
foul	0	0
total	113	169

Result

Final score

113 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts

Match videos

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