Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
219.99 – 162.43
67%33%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
211 – 205
Prediction correct · off by 25.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 449.1 ±9.9
Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 112.5Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 9.37Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 98.12Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.9 ±10.5
Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 55.06Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 25.61Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 81.76Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3603, 9650, 2054
79
/ 100 compatProjected
220 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 3603, 9650, 2054
Auto
43.1 20%
Teleop
134.2 62%
Endgame
39.8 18%
Strengths
- · 3603 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3536, 4983, 226
81
/ 100 compatProjected
162.4 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 3536, 4983, 226
Auto
34.9 22%
Teleop
91.6 58%
Endgame
31.0 20%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.11
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score220pts
Blue projected score162.4pts
Red win probability67%
Event bonus sample168alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 42%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 57.6
- Score range
- 143–239
- Upset likelihood
- 33%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Match context
Close match
High scoring
Playoff
Combined score 416 vs event baseline 106.6.
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
449.1Season APEX425.9
43.1Auto34.9
134.2Teleop91.6
39.8Endgame31
0Consistency4
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 50 | 29 |
| teleop | 139 | 124 |
| endgame | 22 | 47 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 211 | 205 |
Result
Final score
211 – 205
Prediction correct · off by 25.8 pts
Match videos
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