FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 37.71

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

16 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.5 ±11.7

141WOBOT

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX -8.41Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7794Eagle Engineers

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 4.14Rank 31Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 1.29Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.7 ±12.7

7202Cyber Orioles

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 31.16Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5547The Talons

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 5.26Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 1.29Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 141, 7794, 7250

/ 100 compat

Projected

-3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 141, 7794, 7250

Auto

13.4 0%

Teleop

-8.8 100%

Endgame

-7.1 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7202, 5547, 6963

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7202, 5547, 6963

Auto

4.3 12%

Teleop

20.2 56%

Endgame

11.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-3pts

Blue projected score37.7pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.7
Score range: -14–52
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 98 vs event baseline 80.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.5Season APEX203.7

13.4Auto4.3

-8.8Teleop20.2

-7.1Endgame11.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	11
teleop	2	54
endgame	5	17
foul	0	0
total	16	82

Result

Final score

16 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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