FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.28 – 58.29

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

85 – 20

Prediction missed · off by 50 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269 ±12.2

9568AstroBots

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 7.71Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 8.29Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7790Baywatch Robotics

Season APEX 104Event APEX 7.28Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.1 ±12.7

4983IronBots

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 19.71Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11435St. Peter's High School RaiderBots

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 30.29Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9106Spires

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 8.29Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9568, 4956, 7790

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9568, 4956, 7790

Auto

9.9 42%

Teleop

10.3 43%

Endgame

3.6 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4983, 11435, 9106

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4983, 11435, 9106

Auto

6.4 11%

Teleop

32.1 57%

Endgame

18.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score23.3pts

Blue projected score58.3pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35
Score range: 8–73
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 105 vs event baseline 84.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269Season APEX161.1

9.9Auto6.4

10.3Teleop32.1

3.6Endgame18.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	11
teleop	46	5
endgame	25	4
foul	0	0
total	85	20

Result

Final score

85 – 20

Prediction missed · off by 50 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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