FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.42 – 50.74

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

264 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 92.4 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.3 ±10.7

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 29.71Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11437The ARC - Addison Robotics Club

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 12Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 39.71Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184 ±13.3

6114Hamilton CyberHawks

Season APEX 112.8Event APEX 13.43Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3537Delta Force

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 29.71Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 7.6Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5534, 11437, 3603

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5534, 11437, 3603

Auto

8.9 11%

Teleop

52.3 65%

Endgame

18.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6114, 3537, 5560

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6114, 3537, 5560

Auto

19.4 38%

Teleop

26.5 52%

Endgame

4.9 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.4pts

Blue projected score50.7pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.7
Score range: 38–94
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 72.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.3Season APEX184

8.9Auto19.4

52.3Teleop26.5

18.9Endgame4.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	16
teleop	171	28
endgame	87	4
foul	0	5
total	264	53

Result

Final score

264 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 92.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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