FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.45 – 134.28

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.5 ±11.2

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 51.86Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9568AstroBots

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 30.06Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 78.53Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.5 ±10.5

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 19.51Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 5.33Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 109.44Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3536, 9568, 226

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3536, 9568, 226

Auto

30.6 19%

Teleop

94.2 60%

Endgame

32.7 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7768, 7855, 2054

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7768, 7855, 2054

Auto

34.4 25%

Teleop

76.6 56%

Endgame

24.7 18%

Strengths

· 2054 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score160.5pts

Blue projected score134.3pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.2
Score range: 116–178
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 102.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.5Season APEX365.5

30.6Auto34.4

94.2Teleop76.6

32.7Endgame24.7

0Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	8
teleop	112	49
endgame	10	5
foul	0	0
total	159	62

Result

Final score

159 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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