FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

17.31 – 85.48

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

28 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 137.8 ±12.7

11440Casman EObots

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -3.39Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9106Spires

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 17.8Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4776S.C.O.T.S. Bots

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 2.9Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265 ±11.7

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 10.01Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 52.17Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 23.3Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11440, 9106, 4776

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11440, 9106, 4776

Auto

7.2 72%

Teleop

-2.1 0%

Endgame

4.9 49%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5560, 5534, 6963

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5560, 5534, 6963

Auto

14.9 17%

Teleop

51.2 58%

Endgame

22.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.86 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score17.3pts

Blue projected score85.5pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.2
Score range: -1–103
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 102.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

137.8Season APEX265

7.2Auto14.9

-2.1Teleop51.2

4.9Endgame22.9

76Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	33
teleop	9	51
endgame	7	20
foul	0	5
total	28	109

Result

Final score

28 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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