FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.88 – 86.69

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

57 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.5 ±12.8

3537Delta Force

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 27.49Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7794Eagle Engineers

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX -5.01Rank 31Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 38.4Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 155.1 ±12.7

4983IronBots

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 29.68Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9650Mio Thunderbotz

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 17.35Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11437The ARC - Addison Robotics Club

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 39.66Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3537, 7794, 4956

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3537, 7794, 4956

Auto

20.0 34%

Teleop

21.9 38%

Endgame

16.1 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4983, 9650, 11437

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4983, 9650, 11437

Auto

18.8 22%

Teleop

46.4 55%

Endgame

19.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.9pts

Blue projected score86.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.8
Score range: 42–106
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 90 vs event baseline 103.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202.5Season APEX155.1

20Auto18.8

21.9Teleop46.4

16.1Endgame19.8

59Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	22
teleop	27	4
endgame	20	7
foul	0	0
total	57	33

Result

Final score

57 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 28.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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