FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

99.19 – 81.48

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 186

Prediction missed · off by 70.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.5 ±11.7

11440Casman EObots

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 0.01Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7202Cyber Orioles

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 47.35Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 51.83Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 183.7 ±12.7

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX -0.83Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

141WOBOT

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX 49.05Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 33.26Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11440, 7202, 1684

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11440, 7202, 1684

Auto

19.2 20%

Teleop

58.5 62%

Endgame

17.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5560, 141, 9541

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5560, 141, 9541

Auto

21.1 24%

Teleop

45.6 53%

Endgame

20.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score99.2pts

Blue projected score81.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.7
Score range: 62–118
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 103.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.5Season APEX183.7

19.2Auto21.1

58.5Teleop45.6

17.3Endgame20

72Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	19
teleop	23	111
endgame	16	56
foul	0	0
total	63	186

Result

Final score

63 – 186

Prediction missed · off by 70.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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