FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.42 – 108.92

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 2.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.6 ±11.7

5547The Talons

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 26.77Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 48.26Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4983IronBots

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 28.39Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.1 ±11.1

9106Spires

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 16.75Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 32.81Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 59.36Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5547, 5534, 4983

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5547, 5534, 4983

Auto

8.5 9%

Teleop

58.0 59%

Endgame

31.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9106, 9541, 2586

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9106, 9541, 2586

Auto

13.5 12%

Teleop

61.8 57%

Endgame

33.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.4pts

Blue projected score108.9pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.5
Score range: 84–128
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 103.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.6Season APEX346.1

8.5Auto13.5

58Teleop61.8

31.8Endgame33.9

28Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	10
teleop	58	68
endgame	41	32
foul	0	0
total	107	110

Result

Final score

107 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 2.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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