FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.59 – 70.9

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 113

Prediction missed · off by 45.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 487.3 ±10.7

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 62.82Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11440Casman EObots

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -5.69Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 98.46Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.8 ±12.2

7202Cyber Orioles

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 40.04Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 26.17Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6087Cybertronic Lancers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 4.69Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3536, 11440, 2054

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3536, 11440, 2054

Auto

42.2 28%

Teleop

86.1 57%

Endgame

23.4 15%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7202, 7768, 6087

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7202, 7768, 6087

Auto

15.6 22%

Teleop

40.7 58%

Endgame

14.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.6pts

Blue projected score70.9pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.7
Score range: 51–176
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 112.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

487.3Season APEX233.8

42.2Auto15.6

86.1Teleop40.7

23.4Endgame14.2

41Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	11
teleop	59	68
endgame	10	29
foul	0	5
total	107	113

Result

Final score

107 – 113

Prediction missed · off by 45.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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