FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.06 – 81.47

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.3 ±11.7

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 5.89Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11437The ARC - Addison Robotics Club

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 39.73Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 34.44Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.3 ±11.7

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 26.97Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6087Cybertronic Lancers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 6.64Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 47.86Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7855, 11437, 7250

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7855, 11437, 7250

Auto

15.6 20%

Teleop

43.3 55%

Endgame

20.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10421, 6087, 1684

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10421, 6087, 1684

Auto

13.3 18%

Teleop

28.9 39%

Endgame

32.1 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.1pts

Blue projected score81.5pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.4
Score range: 62–99
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 101.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330.3Season APEX348.3

15.6Auto13.3

43.3Teleop28.9

20.1Endgame32.1

68Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	29
teleop	46	57
endgame	10	34
foul	15	0
total	100	120

Result

Final score

100 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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