FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.74 – 110.07

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 5.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.7 ±11.1

4776S.C.O.T.S. Bots

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 3.74Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 53.74Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6114Hamilton CyberHawks

Season APEX 112.8Event APEX 37.26Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.9 ±12.1

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 32.61Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4983IronBots

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 27.63Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7202Cyber Orioles

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 49.83Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4776, 3536, 6114

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4776, 3536, 6114

Auto

22.6 25%

Teleop

53.7 59%

Endgame

15.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9541, 4983, 7202

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9541, 4983, 7202

Auto

22.0 20%

Teleop

66.2 60%

Endgame

22.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.7pts

Blue projected score110.1pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.3
Score range: 77–128
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 101.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364.7Season APEX220.9

22.6Auto22

53.7Teleop66.2

15.2Endgame22.4

35Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	26
teleop	33	56
endgame	43	19
foul	0	0
total	97	101

Result

Final score

97 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 5.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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