FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.92 – 78.99

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168.4 ±12.1

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 21.89Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 26.21Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 5.82Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.7 ±11.2

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 42.49Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11435St. Peter's High School RaiderBots

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 2.52Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 33.98Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6963, 10421, 7855

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6963, 10421, 7855

Auto

10.7 21%

Teleop

21.3 41%

Endgame

19.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4956, 11435, 7250

/ 100 compat

Projected

79 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4956, 11435, 7250

Auto

24.8 33%

Teleop

29.4 40%

Endgame

20.1 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.9pts

Blue projected score79pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.1
Score range: 36–97
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 102.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168.4Season APEX348.7

10.7Auto24.8

21.3Teleop29.4

19.8Endgame20.1

60Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	27
teleop	23	45
endgame	23	12
foul	0	0
total	61	84

Result

Final score

61 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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