FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.6 – 130.35

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 19 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.4 ±11.7

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 1.46Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9650Mio Thunderbotz

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 15.77Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 60.37Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.6 ±12.4

6087Cybertronic Lancers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 2.38Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 102.56Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5547The Talons

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 25.41Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5560, 9650, 2586

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5560, 9650, 2586

Auto

17.7 22%

Teleop

51.2 64%

Endgame

11.2 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6087, 2054, 5547

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6087, 2054, 5547

Auto

23.3 19%

Teleop

69.0 55%

Endgame

33.5 27%

Strengths

· 2054 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.6pts

Blue projected score130.4pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.7
Score range: 60–148
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 246 vs event baseline 101.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.4Season APEX339.6

17.7Auto23.3

51.2Teleop69

11.2Endgame33.5

0Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	33
teleop	43	94
endgame	28	36
foul	0	0
total	83	163

Result

Final score

83 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 19 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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