FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.46 – 112.92

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

123 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 35.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.8 ±12.1

9106Spires

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 14.05Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6114Hamilton CyberHawks

Season APEX 112.8Event APEX 32.85Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

141WOBOT

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX 38.56Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.4 ±12.4

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 44.4Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11437The ARC - Addison Robotics Club

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 37.16Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8041Lake City Ultrabots

Season APEX 45.2Event APEX 31.36Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9106, 6114, 141

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9106, 6114, 141

Auto

13.8 17%

Teleop

46.1 55%

Endgame

23.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1684, 11437, 8041

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1684, 11437, 8041

Auto

15.8 15%

Teleop

57.0 52%

Endgame

36.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.5pts

Blue projected score112.9pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.5
Score range: 67–131
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 101.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.8Season APEX345.4

13.8Auto15.8

46.1Teleop57

23.5Endgame36

0Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	33
teleop	48	83
endgame	48	31
foul	0	0
total	123	147

Result

Final score

123 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 35.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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