FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

78.06 – 23.46

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

106 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.7 ±11.2

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 23.57Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 31.67Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5547The Talons

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 22.82Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 128.3 ±12.7

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX -2.11Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4776S.C.O.T.S. Bots

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX -0.78Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4983IronBots

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 26.35Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7768, 7250, 5547

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7768, 7250, 5547

Auto

13.6 19%

Teleop

35.4 49%

Endgame

23.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5560, 4776, 4983

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5560, 4776, 4983

Auto

16.4 78%

Teleop

8.3 40%

Endgame

-3.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.1pts

Blue projected score23.5pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.6
Score range: 5–96
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 165 vs event baseline 101.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.7Season APEX128.3

13.6Auto16.4

35.4Teleop8.3

23.5Endgame-3.8

54Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	14
teleop	68	34
endgame	17	11
foul	0	0
total	106	59

Result

Final score

106 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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