FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.22 – 60.95

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

247 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 416.6 ±11.1

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 90.15Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6114Hamilton CyberHawks

Season APEX 112.8Event APEX 20.81Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 24.26Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 133.6 ±12.7

9106Spires

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 14.52Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3537Delta Force

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 28.54Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9650Mio Thunderbotz

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 17.89Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2054, 6114, 9541

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2054, 6114, 9541

Auto

39.4 28%

Teleop

67.9 48%

Endgame

33.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9106, 3537, 9650

/ 100 compat

Projected

61 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9106, 3537, 9650

Auto

10.6 19%

Teleop

33.4 60%

Endgame

12.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score135.2pts

Blue projected score61pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.3
Score range: 43–153
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 100.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

416.6Season APEX133.6

39.4Auto10.6

67.9Teleop33.4

33.1Endgame12

21Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	13
teleop	151	13
endgame	42	17
foul	0	0
total	247	43

Result

Final score

247 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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