FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.06 – 105.95

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

29 – 27

Prediction missed · off by 68 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.4 ±12.2

5547The Talons

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 31.98Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 35.4Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9106Spires

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 18.68Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.4 ±11.7

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 24.36Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 52.56Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9568AstroBots

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 29.03Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5547, 4956, 9106

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5547, 4956, 9106

Auto

13.2 16%

Teleop

46.0 54%

Endgame

25.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6963, 7250, 9568

/ 100 compat

Projected

106 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6963, 7250, 9568

Auto

25.1 25%

Teleop

57.6 56%

Endgame

19.5 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.1pts

Blue projected score106pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.9
Score range: 66–126
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 56 vs event baseline 112.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.4Season APEX332.4

13.2Auto25.1

46Teleop57.6

25.4Endgame19.5

0Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	11
teleop	5	14
endgame	23	2
foul	0	0
total	29	27

Result

Final score

29 – 27

Prediction missed · off by 68 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.