FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

108.3 – 37.45

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

94 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434 ±10.7

11435St. Peter's High School RaiderBots

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 6.73Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 47.99Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 53.58Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 320.3 ±11.7

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 32.16Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7794Eagle Engineers

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX -0.05Rank 31Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 5.34Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11435, 1684, 5534

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11435, 1684, 5534

Auto

4.9 5%

Teleop

59.8 56%

Endgame

42.9 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6121, 7794, 7855

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6121, 7794, 7855

Auto

9.2 27%

Teleop

12.5 36%

Endgame

12.9 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score108.3pts

Blue projected score37.5pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.9
Score range: 19–126
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 100.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434Season APEX320.3

4.9Auto9.2

59.8Teleop12.5

42.9Endgame12.9

76Consistency152

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	12
teleop	41	45
endgame	21	12
foul	0	0
total	94	69

Result

Final score

94 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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